Physicists tell us that we can’t travel through time. In contrast, information – and even wisdom – can travel through time, and in both directions.
The Age of Enlightenment brought a revolution in science and it changed the way we viewed the past. Rocks and the fossils in them became the remains of past environments and the life-forms that inhabited them. Scientists turned to modern environments to interpret how they were formed.
To this day, ‘the present is the key to the past.’
The same principle can work in reverse for human history. The past can teach us about the present. Archaeology and physical anthropology tell us many things about ancient societies. What did they eat and what crops did they raise? What might have caused them to disappear? Cave paintings, stone tablets, texts on papyrus and parchment preserve these stories, and they’re still being discovered.
Some grim lessons have traveled to us from pre-history. Crop failures have happened due to drought, agricultural pests, and even volcanic eruptions that blocked out the sun. Epidemics have killed enormous portions of civilizations. Natural disasters and wars have led to economic collapses and mass migrations.
Many, perhaps most of these grim lessons also occurred in the not-too-distant past. They were well documented after each time they occurred. By recurring in the past, they demonstrate that they will happen again.
Next time, they might happen to us.
After-action reports of disasters like these come to mind. They often cite ‘failures of imagination.’ Failures of imagination can be very dangerous, but understandable, to an extent.
Monty Python reminds us that no one ever expects the Spanish Inquisition. I’d agree, but only if it had really been the first.
The forward and backward transfers of knowledge about how the world works should keep us from ever saying “No one ever told us.” Ignorance is no excuse in matters as important as our safety and survival.
Given the knowledge we had at the time, we could easily imagine that events like Hurricane Katrina, Covid-19, and California wildfires are possible. We could have been better prepared for each of them, with more shelters, vaccines, and better communication.
Failures of imagination are different from failures of memory. Our current war with Iran is a case in point. American military involvement in Cuba, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq warned us of the dangers of unilateral incursion into the affairs of another nation.
The Trump Administration might claim victory based on the success of our military and the advanced weapon systems at its disposal. Trump might trumpet the “complete and utter obliteration” of Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities. These strengths of the Iranian government were well known. The risks associated with a major disruption to the global oil supply were equally well known, based on the 1973 OPEC embargo and the 1979 interruption of the oil supply from Iran. Our intelligence agencies certainly provided this information to the President. The current rise in oil prices, the threat to the global economy, and the possibility of a recession are the results of Trump’s willful blindness to history.
The greatest danger of all might be arrogance that dismisses facts, history, and ‘academic elites.’ Willful blindness to the lessons of history is an act of commission, not an accident.
What will the after-action report of the Iran War say? We could have anticipated another oil crisis, consulted with our allies, and enlisted their help in preparing in advance. We could have built up our National Oil Reserves and our inventories of anti-aircraft weapons, and sought ways to ensure the safety of tankers passing through the Straits of Hormuz.
Barely three months into 2026, the story of this year is generating important lessons for us. The outcomes could have been expected based on known history. Blind ambition and arrogance are poor alternatives to patience, forethought, and collaboration with the best minds and allies.
We will soon have the opportunity to exercise our power to vote. Which candidates do more than promise to keep us safe? Which ones have shown their knowledge of and trust in history’s lessons through their actions? Their records of leadership should speak much louder than their words.
All these lessons are known to us. We forget or ignore them at our peril.