Four years ago, Wes Moore began his rapid ascent in politics from being relatively unknown to being the Democratic nominee for Governor of Maryland.
In doing so, he exceeded expectations by defeating nine better-known opponents in a Democratic primary. Those opponents included Peter Franchot, a former state comptroller for four terms, Doug Gansler, a former State Attorney General for two terms, and Tom Perez, a former Democratic National Committee Chair for four years and a former Secretary of Labor in the Obama administration for three and a half years.
In the fall general election, Moore easily defeated Republican candidate Dan Cox.
In both elections, Moore exceeded expectations.
As a result, Moore has been widely viewed as a rising star in national Democratic politics and as a future candidate for Vice President or President.
That could change in November.
Despite all the hype about his future, Moore’s tenure as governor to date has been rocky.
He has experienced what is often the case for candidates for public office – winning primary and general elections is easier than governing.
This can be the case even for a Democratic governor with Democratic supermajorities in the Maryland House of Delegates and Maryland Senate.
So far in his first term, those Democratic supermajorities have voted to override 19 vetoes by Moore.
By comparison, Democratic supermajorities approved 26 veto overrides during former Republican Governor Larry Hogan’s two terms.
Recently, Moore was unsuccessful in his aggressive and sustained efforts to secure legislative approval of congressional map redistricting in Maryland prior to the 2026 midterm elections. That initiative was a top priority of national Democratic leaders, including U.S. House Minority Floor Leader Hakeem Jeffries and the National Democratic Redistricting Committee.
More troubling for Moore are recent results of polling on his overall job performance.
In poll results released on April 1 by the Institute of Politics at the University of Maryland Baltimore County, Moore’s job approval rating fell below 50% for the first time since he took office. Only 48% of residents expressed approval of his job performance while 42% expressed disapproval.
The poll also found a significant increase in the number of Marylanders who believe the state is headed in the wrong direction, up to 59% from 40% in a previous Institute poll.
In her comments on these polling results, Dr. Mileah Kromer, Director of the UMBC Institute of Politics has said, “The overarching tone of the survey is the concern, frustration, and anger over affordability issues. Sooner or later, the governor becomes the focal point. That’s the thing about being the governor, you get the credit when things are going great. He can’t as an individual fix grocery prices. But people tend to hold the chief executive of the state accountable.” How accountable in the upcoming November an election remains to be seen.
Much depends on the electability of two possible Republican challengers most frequently mentioned in the media, Dan Cox and Ed Hale. They too have their own issues.
Dan Cox lost in a landslide to Moore in the last gubernatorial election with only 32% of the statewide vote. That is two percentage points lower than what Donald Trump received in Maryland in 2024.
Ed Hale is a first-time candidate for any elective office and was a long-time member of the Democratic party. He changed parties to run in the Republican gubernatorial primary.
Moore’s long-term challenge is showing he can win big despite his challenges, especially the cumulative impact if there are more negative polling results on his job performance and expectations on the future direction of Maryland.
Another challenge is if his eventual Republican opponent develops and delivers campaign messages that resonate with currently disgruntled voters.
A Republican opponent could follow the campaign counsel of veteran campaign consultant Frank Luntz who once worked with Democrat turned Republican Ronald Reagan. Luntz has written “Get your audience to visualize… imagine. Only when people can see a better future will they consider a change.”
That messaging strategy worked exceptionally well for Larry Hogan in his first and successful long shot campaign for governor. His “Change Maryland” messaging focused on voter discontent on taxes, regulations, and the economy resonated with enough voters to defeat an incumbent two term Democratic Lieutenant Governor who was widely expected to win.
On the question, can Wes Moore win and lose at the same time, the answer is … it depends.
As an incumbent governor with an estimated $8 million in his campaign war chest, Moore has to be favored to win reelection with either a majority or a plurality of votes cast.
If his Republican opponent loses the election but wages a competitive campaign, that could result in a narrow win for Moore that does not meet higher expectations in the media and among leaders in the national Democratic party.
If that does occur, Moore is very likely to lose on his virtually nonstop efforts to maintain and enhance his current standing as a rising star in the Democratic Party on the national level.
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