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The Mystery of Trump’s 25% Tariff Threat on Kazakhstan

    The Central Asian nation, rich in critical minerals, is deepening its ties to China but does relatively little trade with the United States.

    When President Trump announced tariffs in April, officials in Kazakhstan were surprised to see their country on the list.

    Kazakhstan, a resource-rich country that borders Russia and China, does a minimal amount of trade with the United States. And based on how Kazakh government officials interpreted Mr. Trump’s new policies, more than 90 percent of its exports to the United States would be exempt from the tariff. Still, it said it was ready to negotiate the terms of trade with Washington.

    Then this week, Kazakhstan was one of nearly two dozen countries to receive nearly identical warning letters from Mr. Trump. Strike a deal by Aug. 1 or face a 25 percent tariff, the letter directed.

    The aggressive approach by the Trump administration is a bit of a turnabout for Kazakhstan. American officials have spent much of the last decade promising money and support to prod the country to open up its economy, especially mining.

    Historically, the United States was a major investor in Kazakhstan, primarily for oil and gas development. American investment in the country peaked a few years ago in 2022, and it has been trending lower since.

    In more recent years, mining companies from the United States and other countries have been looking for ways to tap Kazakhstan’s minerals. In 2024, the Kazakh government issued more than 50 percent more mining exploration licenses than in the previous year.

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    Poonam Namdev

    Poonam Namdev

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