Politics never sleeps because the aggressively ambitious have an abnormal body clock. Additionally, millions and now billions of dollars propel campaign forces—power purchased. We should be concerned, if not frightened.
Parenthetically, the fractured atmosphere nationally and attendant outrages should underscore the importance of State and Local elections and governance.
However, let me begin with 2028, national politics, and the Democrats. At the beginning of 2029 a new President will be sworn in. The term is four years. The winner will not be a transitional figure; if a Democrat, he/she will script and act to turn the page.
While the Trump presidency is not ready for the historians, it is clear that the President, as CEO, with an excessive authoritarian appetite, has changed both the tone and tenor of how we are governed. Will the pattern continue? He has issued 244 Executive Orders and a rough count of pending court challenges numbers 300 to 500. This latter count is muddled, because not all the challenges are to the Orders themselves.
Polymarket‘s 2028 U.S. Presidential Election betting lines are active and show the following early favorites, with JD Vance leading:
JD Vance: 21.1%
Gavin Newsom: 17.3%
Marco Rubio: 9.8%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 5.5%
The numbers do not reflect polls but gamblers bets.
Each of the above lust for the job. Each are, to one degree or another, well-known and good visually. Would the quite rotund William Howard Taft have been electable today?
Back to the Democrats: so far the back and forth has largely been motivated by “Trump is evil” and “I hate him even more than you do.” Not an appealing platform. It certainly draws attention, but grievance candidates are generally not elected.
If the campaign unfolds as a novelist drama with candidates posing as actors, America will not be well served. So let me take a minute more on the candidates that have a chance to be a good President. And, a theory.
First, my theory: most citizens want to see a Re-United America. Most citizens understand that politics driven by divide and conquer tactics is depleting and that is not good for America or American’s relationships with each other.
Breathless articles of invective generally feature California’s Governor, Gavin Newsom, or New York Congresswoman, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC). Neither is well-positioned to center a campaign on Re-Uniting. Both have represented leftist constituencies. Their political skills tend to resemble JD Vance on the Republican side. They think of themselves as warriors.
So, I don’t have a prediction of a particular politician, but I think the Democratic field is wide open for a candidate that seeks to Re-Unite and, as a consequence, at least edges toward centrist policies. I must admit to being intrigued by Rahm Emanuel who is a former Congressman and was a White House operative for both former Presidents Clinton and Obama. Emanuel can shape his campaign around today’s challenges since he is not now in office and dependent on special interests of the Left.
It is also important to keep in mind the next President will take office when our nation faces a national debt well in excess of $40 trillion—a bi-partisan failure. A reckoning awaits.
So, what about the Republican Party? What will the post-Trump nominee look like? Today it is said that the successor will be either JD Vance or Marco Rubio—both former Senators and who for better or worse will be branded by the preceding three or so years.
I have some doubt that it will boil down to those two. The elections this November will signal whether the public wants a Trump-trained successor. My guess is that the voters will say no.
Former South Carolina Governor Niki Haley has good management chops and in the first Trump administration served as our UN Ambassador. She has been relatively quiet the last two years; count on that ending with the November election.
If a truly authentic uniter and occasional Trump foe has an opening, then Utah’s Republican Governor Spencer Cox would be my choice.
Let me conclude with a bit of hard-edged realism. Party warriors generally double down on what has worked. Most continued to support Joe Biden, for example. They are invested in the past. If either Party nominates a uniter, it will be over their objections. Now for the inevitable “but”.
Campaigns are hugely expensive and most of the wealthy are pragmatists. Some are even patriots. Maybe, just maybe, money gained through American capitalism can be used to once again pair democracy and capitalism in a more hopeful alliance.